Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Nawaphan Metchanun; Christian Borgemeister; Gaston Amzati; Joachim von Braun; Milen Nikolov; Prashanth Selvaraj; Jaline Gerardin

doi:10.1111/eva.13331

Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Nawaphan Metchanun^*, Christian Borgemeister, Gaston Amzati, Joachim von Braun, Milen Nikolov, Prashanth Selvaraj, Jaline Gerardin

^*Corresponding author for this work

Preventive Medicine

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex-ratio-distorting gene drives, such as driving-Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent-based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating driving-Y gene drive mosquitoes in malaria elimination strategies that include existing interventions such as insecticide-treated nets and case management of symptomatic malaria. Gene drive mosquitoes could eliminate malaria and were the most cost-effective intervention overall if the drive component was highly effective with at least 95% X-shredder efficiency at relatively low fertility cost, and associated cost of deployment below 7.17 $int per person per year. Suppression gene drive could be a cost-effective supplemental intervention for malaria elimination, but tight constraints on drive effectiveness and cost ceilings may limit its feasibility.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	132-148
Number of pages	17
Journal	Evolutionary Applications
Volume	15
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.13331
State	Published - Jan 2022

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Genetics
Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1111/eva.13331

Cite this

@article{2bf7d861ce6444578ae13d644945c0ca,

title = "Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo",

abstract = "Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex-ratio-distorting gene drives, such as driving-Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent-based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating driving-Y gene drive mosquitoes in malaria elimination strategies that include existing interventions such as insecticide-treated nets and case management of symptomatic malaria. Gene drive mosquitoes could eliminate malaria and were the most cost-effective intervention overall if the drive component was highly effective with at least 95% X-shredder efficiency at relatively low fertility cost, and associated cost of deployment below 7.17 $int per person per year. Suppression gene drive could be a cost-effective supplemental intervention for malaria elimination, but tight constraints on drive effectiveness and cost ceilings may limit its feasibility.",

author = "Nawaphan Metchanun and Christian Borgemeister and Gaston Amzati and {von Braun}, Joachim and Milen Nikolov and Prashanth Selvaraj and Jaline Gerardin",

note = "Funding Information: Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) via the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Wellcome Trust. The funding sources are not involved in study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the paper for publication The authors thank the Institute for Disease Modeling and, in particular, Benoit Raybaud and Edward Wenger for their generous technical support and resource sharing. We are immensely grateful to Philip Welkhoff and David O'Brochta for helpful discussions and comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. Funding Information: Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) via the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Wellcome Trust. The funding sources are not involved in study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the paper for publication Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",

year = "2022",

month = jan,

doi = "10.1111/eva.13331",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "15",

pages = "132--148",

journal = "Evolutionary Applications",

issn = "1752-4563",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

AU - Metchanun, Nawaphan

AU - Borgemeister, Christian

AU - Amzati, Gaston

AU - von Braun, Joachim

AU - Nikolov, Milen

AU - Selvaraj, Prashanth

AU - Gerardin, Jaline

N1 - Funding Information: Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) via the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Wellcome Trust. The funding sources are not involved in study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the paper for publication The authors thank the Institute for Disease Modeling and, in particular, Benoit Raybaud and Edward Wenger for their generous technical support and resource sharing. We are immensely grateful to Philip Welkhoff and David O'Brochta for helpful discussions and comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. Funding Information: Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) via the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Wellcome Trust. The funding sources are not involved in study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the paper for publication Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2022/1

Y1 - 2022/1

N2 - Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex-ratio-distorting gene drives, such as driving-Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent-based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating driving-Y gene drive mosquitoes in malaria elimination strategies that include existing interventions such as insecticide-treated nets and case management of symptomatic malaria. Gene drive mosquitoes could eliminate malaria and were the most cost-effective intervention overall if the drive component was highly effective with at least 95% X-shredder efficiency at relatively low fertility cost, and associated cost of deployment below 7.17 $int per person per year. Suppression gene drive could be a cost-effective supplemental intervention for malaria elimination, but tight constraints on drive effectiveness and cost ceilings may limit its feasibility.

AB - Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex-ratio-distorting gene drives, such as driving-Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent-based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating driving-Y gene drive mosquitoes in malaria elimination strategies that include existing interventions such as insecticide-treated nets and case management of symptomatic malaria. Gene drive mosquitoes could eliminate malaria and were the most cost-effective intervention overall if the drive component was highly effective with at least 95% X-shredder efficiency at relatively low fertility cost, and associated cost of deployment below 7.17 $int per person per year. Suppression gene drive could be a cost-effective supplemental intervention for malaria elimination, but tight constraints on drive effectiveness and cost ceilings may limit its feasibility.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85122383392&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85122383392&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/eva.13331

DO - 10.1111/eva.13331

M3 - Article

C2 - 35126652

AN - SCOPUS:85122383392

SN - 1752-4563

VL - 15

SP - 132

EP - 148

JO - Evolutionary Applications

JF - Evolutionary Applications

IS - 1

ER -

Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this