Approximately 50% of infants with biliary atresia (BA) undergoing Kasai portoenterostomy show survival with native liver (SNL) at age 2 years. Predictors of disease progression after age 2 years are unknown, despite estimates of 20%-30% undergoing liver transplant (LT) between age 2 and 18 years. We sought to address this knowledge gap by developing prognostic models in participants of the multicenter prospective National Institutes of Health-supported Childhood Liver Disease Research Network. We extracted 14 clinical and biochemical variables at age 2 years to develop two models for future outcomes: 1) LT or death (LTD) and 2) first sentinel event (SE), either new onset ascites, hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS), or gastrointestinal (GI) bleed. A total of 240 participants, enrolled between 2004 and 2017, were followed until a median age of 5.1 years (range, 2.0-13.3 years). Of these participants, 38 underwent LT (n = 37) or death (n = 1); cumulative incidence, 23.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.2%-32.0%). Twenty-seven experienced either new-onset ascites (n = 13), HPS (n = 1), or GI bleed (n = 14). One participant had ascites and GI bleed concurrently; cumulative incidence, 21.5% (95% CI, 14.2%-29.8%) by age 10 years. The Cox proportional hazard model predicted risk of LTD, using total bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, and history of either ascites or cholangitis (BA LTD model), with a C-index of 0.88 (range, 0.86-0.89). A cause-specific hazard competing risk model predicted SE using platelet count and gamma glutamyltransferase levels (BA SE model) with a C-index of 0.81 (range, 0.80-0.84). Internal model validity was assessed using Harrell’s C-index with cross-validation. Conclusion: Stratification using these models identified risk of poor outcomes in patients with BA SNL after age 2 years. The models may identify those who would benefit from enhanced clinical surveillance and prioritization in clinical trials.
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