Multi-institutional analysis of clinical and imaging risk factors for detecting clinically significant prostate cancer in men with PI-RADS 3 lesions

Background: Most Prostate Imaging–Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 3 lesions do not contain clinically significant prostate cancer (CSPCa; grade group ≥2). This study was aimed at identifying clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)–derived risk fac- tors that predict CSPCa in men with PI-RADS 3 lesions. Methods: This study analyzed the detection of CSPCa in men who underwent MRI-targeted biopsy for PI-RADS 3 lesions. Multivariable logistic regression models with goodness-of-fit testing were used to identify variables associated with CSPCa. Receiver operating curves and decision curve analyses were used to estimate the clinical utility of a predictive model. Results: Of the 1784 men reviewed, 1537 were included in the training cohort, and 247 were included in the validation cohort. The 309 men with CSPCa (17.3%) were older, had a higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density, and had a greater likelihood of an anteriorly located lesion than men without CSPCa (p <.01). Multivariable analysis revealed that PSA density (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05–1.85; p <.01), age (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.07; p <.01), and a biopsy-naive status (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.38–2.44) were independently associated with CSPCa. A prior negative biopsy was negatively associated (OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.24–0.50; p <.01). The application of the model to the validation cohort resulted in an area under the curve of 0.78. A predicted risk threshold of 12% could have prevented 25% of biopsies while detecting almost 95% of CSPCas with a sensitivity of 94% and a specificity of 34%. Conclusions: For PI-RADS 3 lesions, an elevated PSA density, older age, and a biopsy-naive status were associated with CSPCa, whereas a prior negative biopsy was negatively associated. A predictive model could prevent PI-RADS 3 biopsies while missing few CSPCas. Lay summary: Among men with an equivocal lesion (Prostate Imaging–Reporting and Data System 3) on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI), those who are older, those who have a higher prostate-specific antigen density, and those who have never had a biopsy before are at higher risk for having clinically significant prostate cancer (CSPCa) on subsequent biopsy. However, men with at least one negative biopsy have a lower risk of CSPCa. A new predictive model can greatly reduce the need to biopsy equivocal lesions noted on mpMRI while missing only a few cases of CSPCa.