Multi-stage uncertainty quantification for verifying the correctness of complex system designs

Christopher Hoyle*, Irem Y. Tumer, Tolga Kurtoglu, Wei Chen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

Designing complex systems for mission-critical applications requires a design process with focus upon maximizing the probability of meeting design requirements. Typically the design process for these systems consists of filtering and refining an initial set of conceptual designs to produce a final set of detailed designs. This final set of designs is presented to the system contracting agency or management team for design selection. In this work, a framework is presented for a multi-stage design process in which the Probability of Correctness (PoC) is utilized as a metric to sequentially filter designs from the abstract conceptual phase through the detailed design phase. This framework utilizes methods for uncertainty propagation (UP) from reliability engineering, which are organized within the framework to match the UP method with the model fidelity and data type available at each stage of the process. A case study using the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) Electric Power System (EPS) is presented to illustrate both the verification process utilizing multiple UP methods, and also the use of the OpenModelica environment for system design. A discussion presents a generalization of the framework and the future work needed to realize the comprehensive framework for system design.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationASME 2011 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2011
Pages1169-1178
Number of pages10
EditionPARTS A AND B
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2011
EventASME 2011 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2011 - Washington, DC, United States
Duration: Aug 28 2011Aug 31 2011

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
NumberPARTS A AND B
Volume5

Other

OtherASME 2011 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2011
CountryUnited States
CityWashington, DC
Period8/28/118/31/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design

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