Abstract
This article lays out a theoretical framework for understanding the effects of political uncertainty on party development and strategies of mobilization and competition. Defining uncertainty as the imprecision with which political actors are able to predict future interactions, the authors identify three types of political uncertainty: regime uncertainty, economic uncertainty, and institutional uncertainty. They argue that political uncertainty is particularly high among developing democracies, contributing to puzzling empirical patterns of party development and competition in these contexts. Taking into account the role of uncertainty in the strategic decision making of party elites will help scholars better understand the differences between parties in advanced and developing democracies. But it can also help scholars understand the less dramatic differences between parties even within advanced democracies. The authors' theoretical framework can be applied broadly since uncertainty informs the strategic choices of a much wider range of political actors.
Original language | English (US) |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 1339-1365 |
Number of pages | 27 |
Journal | Comparative Political Studies |
Volume | 46 |
Issue number | 11 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Nov 2013 |
Funding
The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: We are grateful for the generous funding provided for the conference and a second workshop by the Princeton Department of Politics, the Mamdouha S. Bobst Center for Peace and Justice, and the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies. Lupu also acknowledges support from the Helen Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame and the Center for Advanced Study in the Social Sciences at the Juan March Institute.
Keywords
- developing democracies
- party competition
- party formation
- party systems
- political parties
- political uncertainty
- voter-party linkages
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Sociology and Political Science