Post-discharge venous thromboembolism after pancreatectomy for malignancy: Predicting risk based on preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors

Cary Jo R. Schlick, Ryan P. Merkow, Anthony D. Yang, David J. Bentrem*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Extended chemoprophylaxis is recommended for high-risk patients following pancreatectomy for malignancy. However, quantifying risk remains difficult. We sought to (a) identify factors associated with post-discharge venous thromboembolism (VTE) following pancreatectomy for malignancy and (b) develop a post-discharge VTE risk calculator to identify high-risk patients. Methods: Patients who underwent pancreatectomy for malignant histology from 2014 to 2018 were identified from the ACS NSQIP pancreatectomy procedure targeted dataset. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors known at hospital discharge were evaluated for association with post-discharge VTE via multivariable logistic regression. A post-discharge VTE risk calculator was developed and validated. Results: Of 19 340 analyzed patients, 280 (1.5%) developed post-discharge VTE. Post-discharge VTE was associated with increasing body mass index (BMI; eg, morbidly obese BMI odds ratio [OR]: 1.99 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.30-3.02] vs normal BMI), procedure type (distal pancreatectomy OR: 1.47 [95% CI: 1.02-2.12] vs pancreaticoduodenectomy), pancreatic fistula (OR: 1.59 [95% CI: 1.19-2.13]) and delayed gastric emptying (OR: 1.81 [95% CI: 1.29-2.52]). Patients’ predicted probability of post-discharge VTE ranged from 0.7% to 9.0%. Twenty iterations of 10-fold cross-validation demonstrated internal validity. Conclusions: Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors were associated with post-discharge VTE following pancreatectomy for malignancy. This post-discharge VTE risk calculator allows for quantification of individual post-discharge VTE risk, which ranged from 0.7% to 9.0%.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)675-683
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of surgical oncology
Volume122
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2020

Keywords

  • ACS NSQIP
  • extended chemoprophylaxis
  • pancreatectomy
  • post-discharge venous thromboembolism
  • risk calculator
  • venous thromboembolism

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Oncology

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