Predicting COVID-19 cases in diverse population groups using SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring across Oklahoma City

Katrin Gaardbo Kuhn; Jane Jarshaw; Erin Jeffries; Kunle Adesigbin; Phil Maytubby; Nicole Dundas; A. Caitlin Miller; Emily Rhodes; Bradley Stevenson; Jason Vogel; Halley Reeves

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151431

Predicting COVID-19 cases in diverse population groups using SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring across Oklahoma City

Katrin Gaardbo Kuhn^*, Jane Jarshaw, Erin Jeffries, Kunle Adesigbin, Phil Maytubby, Nicole Dundas, A. Caitlin Miller, Emily Rhodes, Bradley Stevenson, Jason Vogel, Halley Reeves

^*Corresponding author for this work

Earth and Planetary Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

25 Scopus citations

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 was discovered among humans in late 2019 and rapidly spread across the world. Although the virus is transmitted by respiratory droplets, most infected persons also excrete viral particles in their feces. This fact prompted a range of studies assessing the usefulness of wastewater surveillance to determine levels of infection and transmission and produce early warnings of outbreaks in local communities, independently of human testing. In this study, we collected samples of wastewater from 13 locations across Oklahoma City, representing different population types, twice per week from November 2020 to end of March 2021. Wastewater samples were collected and analyzed for the presence and concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using RT-qPCR. The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater showed notable peaks, preceding the number of reported COVID-19 cases by an average of one week (ranging between 4 and 10 days). The early warning lead-time for an outbreak or increase in cases was significantly higher in areas with larger Hispanic populations and lower in areas with a higher household income or higher proportion of persons aged 65 years or older. Using this relationship, we predicted the number of cases with an accuracy of 81–92% compared to reported cases. These results confirm the validity and timeliness of using wastewater surveillance for monitoring local disease transmission and highlight the importance of differences in population structures when interpreting surveillance outputs and planning preventive action.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	151431
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	812
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151431
State	Published - Mar 15 2022

Funding

We are grateful for the support of the City of Oklahoma City and in particular the Oklahoma City County Health Department with setting up the surveillance as a routine process and for provision and interpretation of COVID-19 case data. The financial support of the Federal Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act is acknowledged with thanks. We also thank the following members of the OU Wastewater Team for their individual contributions: Kavya Boyina, James Cutler, Gabriel Florea, James Floyd, Grant Graves, Emily Junkins, Jacobey King, Emma Kasahara, Bryce Lowery, Kyle Mattingly, Joseph McWhirter, Caitlin Miller, Nancy Nguyen, Emily Rhodes, Lindsay Roland, Will Ruley, Kristen Shelton, Madison Swayne, Zohaib Thayani and Matthew Wiewel. We are grateful for the support of the City of Oklahoma City and in particular the Oklahoma City County Health Department with setting up the surveillance as a routine process and for provision and interpretation of COVID-19 case data. The financial support of the Federal Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act is acknowledged with thanks. We also thank the following members of the OU Wastewater Team for their individual contributions: Kavya Boyina, James Cutler, Gabriel Florea, James Floyd, Grant Graves, Emily Junkins, Jacobey King, Emma Kasahara, Bryce Lowery, Kyle Mattingly, Joseph McWhirter, Caitlin Miller, Nancy Nguyen, Emily Rhodes, Lindsay Roland, Will Ruley, Kristen Shelton, Madison Swayne, Zohaib Thayani and Matthew Wiewel. This work was funded by the City of Oklahoma City through The Federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act.

Keywords

COVID-19
Demography
Early warning
Outbreak
Predictions
Wastewater

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Pollution
Waste Management and Disposal
Environmental Engineering
Environmental Chemistry

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151431

Cite this

Kuhn, K. G., Jarshaw, J., Jeffries, E., Adesigbin, K., Maytubby, P., Dundas, N., Miller, A. C., Rhodes, E., Stevenson, B., Vogel, J., & Reeves, H. (2022). Predicting COVID-19 cases in diverse population groups using SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring across Oklahoma City. Science of the Total Environment, 812, Article 151431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151431

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abstract = "SARS-CoV-2 was discovered among humans in late 2019 and rapidly spread across the world. Although the virus is transmitted by respiratory droplets, most infected persons also excrete viral particles in their feces. This fact prompted a range of studies assessing the usefulness of wastewater surveillance to determine levels of infection and transmission and produce early warnings of outbreaks in local communities, independently of human testing. In this study, we collected samples of wastewater from 13 locations across Oklahoma City, representing different population types, twice per week from November 2020 to end of March 2021. Wastewater samples were collected and analyzed for the presence and concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using RT-qPCR. The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater showed notable peaks, preceding the number of reported COVID-19 cases by an average of one week (ranging between 4 and 10 days). The early warning lead-time for an outbreak or increase in cases was significantly higher in areas with larger Hispanic populations and lower in areas with a higher household income or higher proportion of persons aged 65 years or older. Using this relationship, we predicted the number of cases with an accuracy of 81–92% compared to reported cases. These results confirm the validity and timeliness of using wastewater surveillance for monitoring local disease transmission and highlight the importance of differences in population structures when interpreting surveillance outputs and planning preventive action.",

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author = "Kuhn, {Katrin Gaardbo} and Jane Jarshaw and Erin Jeffries and Kunle Adesigbin and Phil Maytubby and Nicole Dundas and Miller, {A. Caitlin} and Emily Rhodes and Bradley Stevenson and Jason Vogel and Halley Reeves",

note = "Funding Information: We are grateful for the support of the City of Oklahoma City and in particular the Oklahoma City County Health Department with setting up the surveillance as a routine process and for provision and interpretation of COVID-19 case data. The financial support of the Federal Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act is acknowledged with thanks. We also thank the following members of the OU Wastewater Team for their individual contributions: Kavya Boyina, James Cutler, Gabriel Florea, James Floyd, Grant Graves, Emily Junkins, Jacobey King, Emma Kasahara, Bryce Lowery, Kyle Mattingly, Joseph McWhirter, Caitlin Miller, Nancy Nguyen, Emily Rhodes, Lindsay Roland, Will Ruley, Kristen Shelton, Madison Swayne, Zohaib Thayani and Matthew Wiewel. Funding Information: We are grateful for the support of the City of Oklahoma City and in particular the Oklahoma City County Health Department with setting up the surveillance as a routine process and for provision and interpretation of COVID-19 case data. The financial support of the Federal Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act is acknowledged with thanks. We also thank the following members of the OU Wastewater Team for their individual contributions: Kavya Boyina, James Cutler, Gabriel Florea, James Floyd, Grant Graves, Emily Junkins, Jacobey King, Emma Kasahara, Bryce Lowery, Kyle Mattingly, Joseph McWhirter, Caitlin Miller, Nancy Nguyen, Emily Rhodes, Lindsay Roland, Will Ruley, Kristen Shelton, Madison Swayne, Zohaib Thayani and Matthew Wiewel. Funding Information: This work was funded by the City of Oklahoma City through The Federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Elsevier B.V.",

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doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151431",

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AU - Dundas, Nicole

AU - Miller, A. Caitlin

AU - Rhodes, Emily

AU - Stevenson, Bradley

AU - Vogel, Jason

AU - Reeves, Halley

N1 - Funding Information: We are grateful for the support of the City of Oklahoma City and in particular the Oklahoma City County Health Department with setting up the surveillance as a routine process and for provision and interpretation of COVID-19 case data. The financial support of the Federal Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act is acknowledged with thanks. We also thank the following members of the OU Wastewater Team for their individual contributions: Kavya Boyina, James Cutler, Gabriel Florea, James Floyd, Grant Graves, Emily Junkins, Jacobey King, Emma Kasahara, Bryce Lowery, Kyle Mattingly, Joseph McWhirter, Caitlin Miller, Nancy Nguyen, Emily Rhodes, Lindsay Roland, Will Ruley, Kristen Shelton, Madison Swayne, Zohaib Thayani and Matthew Wiewel. Funding Information: We are grateful for the support of the City of Oklahoma City and in particular the Oklahoma City County Health Department with setting up the surveillance as a routine process and for provision and interpretation of COVID-19 case data. The financial support of the Federal Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act is acknowledged with thanks. We also thank the following members of the OU Wastewater Team for their individual contributions: Kavya Boyina, James Cutler, Gabriel Florea, James Floyd, Grant Graves, Emily Junkins, Jacobey King, Emma Kasahara, Bryce Lowery, Kyle Mattingly, Joseph McWhirter, Caitlin Miller, Nancy Nguyen, Emily Rhodes, Lindsay Roland, Will Ruley, Kristen Shelton, Madison Swayne, Zohaib Thayani and Matthew Wiewel. Funding Information: This work was funded by the City of Oklahoma City through The Federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Elsevier B.V.

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N2 - SARS-CoV-2 was discovered among humans in late 2019 and rapidly spread across the world. Although the virus is transmitted by respiratory droplets, most infected persons also excrete viral particles in their feces. This fact prompted a range of studies assessing the usefulness of wastewater surveillance to determine levels of infection and transmission and produce early warnings of outbreaks in local communities, independently of human testing. In this study, we collected samples of wastewater from 13 locations across Oklahoma City, representing different population types, twice per week from November 2020 to end of March 2021. Wastewater samples were collected and analyzed for the presence and concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using RT-qPCR. The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater showed notable peaks, preceding the number of reported COVID-19 cases by an average of one week (ranging between 4 and 10 days). The early warning lead-time for an outbreak or increase in cases was significantly higher in areas with larger Hispanic populations and lower in areas with a higher household income or higher proportion of persons aged 65 years or older. Using this relationship, we predicted the number of cases with an accuracy of 81–92% compared to reported cases. These results confirm the validity and timeliness of using wastewater surveillance for monitoring local disease transmission and highlight the importance of differences in population structures when interpreting surveillance outputs and planning preventive action.

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Predicting COVID-19 cases in diverse population groups using SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring across Oklahoma City

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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