Prediction of chemotherapy benefit by EndoPredict in patients with breast cancer who received adjuvant endocrine therapy plus chemotherapy or endocrine therapy alone

Ivana Sestak*, Miguel Martín, Peter Dubsky, Ralf Kronenwett, Federico Rojo, Jack Cuzick, Martin Filipits, Amparo Ruiz, William Gradishar, Hatem Soliman, Lee Schwartzberg, Richard Buus, Dominik Hlauschek, Alvaro Rodríguez-Lescure, Michael Gnant

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

23 Scopus citations

Abstract

Purpose: EndoPredict (EPclin) is a prognostic test validated to inform decisions on adjuvant chemotherapy to endocrine therapy alone for patients with oestrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. Here, we determine the performance of EPclin for estimating 10-year distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) rates for those who received adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) alone compared to those with chemotherapy plus endocrine therapy (ET + C). Methods: A total of 3746 women were included in this joint analysis. 2630 patients received 5 years of ET alone (ABCSG-6/8, TransATAC) and 1116 patients received ET + C (GEICAM 2003-02/9906). The primary objective was to evaluate the ability of EPclin to provide an estimate of the 10-year DR rate as a continuous function of EPclin separately for ET alone and ET + C. Cox proportional hazard models were used for these analyses. Results: EPclin was highly prognostic for DR in women who received ET alone (HR 2.79 (2.49–3.13), P < 0.0001) as well as in those who received ET + C (HR 2.27 (1.99–2.59), P < 0.0001). Women who received ET + C had significantly smaller increases in 10-year DR rates with the increasing EPclin score than those receiving ET alone (EPclin = 5; 12% ET + C vs. 20% ET alone). We observed a significant positive interaction between EPclin and treatment groups (P-interaction = 0.022). Conclusions: In this comparative non-randomised analysis, the rate of increase in DR with EPclin score was significantly reduced in women who received ET + C versus ET alone. Our indirect comparisons suggest that a high EPclin score can predict chemotherapy benefit in women with ER-positive, HER2-negative disease.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)377-386
Number of pages10
JournalBreast Cancer Research and Treatment
Volume176
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 30 2019

Keywords

  • Breast cancer
  • Chemotherapy
  • EndoPredict
  • Prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research

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