Prognosis of Severe Asymptomatic Aortic Stenosis With and Without Surgery

John Campo, Andrea Tsoris, Jane Kruse, Azad Karim, Adin Cristian Andrei, Menghan Liu, Robert O. Bonow, Patrick McCarthy, S. Chris Malaisrie*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

43 Scopus citations


Background: This study sought to determine outcomes in patients with severe, asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS), stratified by treatment recommendation. Methods: Between January 2005 and December 2013, 4,998 patients had severe AS by echocardiography, of whom 308 were identified as asymptomatic by medical record review. Five patients were deemed inoperable, and 38 were lost to follow-up. Of the remaining 265 patients, aortic valve replacement (AVR) was recommended in 104, and watchful waiting (WW) was recommended in 161. Probabilities of undergoing surgery and of death from recommendation date were estimated using a multistate model. Cox regression analysis was used to determine independent risk factors for death. Results: Probability of death at 1 year after recommendation was 5.2% in the WW group and 4.7% in the AVR group. At 2 years after recommendation, survival in the AVR-recommended group was 92.5% versus 83.9% in the WW group (p = 0.044). In the WW group, the probability of dying or undergoing surgery was 43.9% by 2 years. Undergoing surgery was independently associated with higher survival in the AVR-recommended group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.17; p = 0.038) and in the WW group (HR, 0.39; p = 0.044). A higher ejection fraction (HR, 0.58; p < 0.001) was associated with better survival, whereas renal failure (HR, 2.81; p = 0.009) was associated with worse survival. Conclusions: The strategy of early AVR is associated with improved survival in asymptomatic patients.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)74-79
Number of pages6
JournalAnnals of Thoracic Surgery
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jul 2019

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine


Dive into the research topics of 'Prognosis of Severe Asymptomatic Aortic Stenosis With and Without Surgery'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this