Relative Tsunami Hazard From Segments of Cascadia Subduction Zone For Mw 7.5–9.2 Earthquakes

Amir Salaree; Yihe Huang; Marlon D. Ramos; Seth Stein

doi:10.1029/2021GL094174

Relative Tsunami Hazard From Segments of Cascadia Subduction Zone For M_w 7.5–9.2 Earthquakes

Amir Salaree^*, Yihe Huang, Marlon D. Ramos, Seth Stein

^*Corresponding author for this work

Earth and Planetary Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Tsunamis from earthquakes of various magnitudes have affected Cascadia in the past. Simulations of M_w 7.5–9.2 earthquake constrained by earthquake rupture physics and geodetic locking models show that M_w ≥ 8.5 events initiating in the middle segments of the subduction zone can create coastal tsunami amplitudes comparable to those from the largest expected event. Our rupture and tsunami simulations reveal that the concave coastline geometry of the Pacific Northwest coastline focuses tsunami energy between latitudes 44° and 45° in Oregon. The possible coastal tsunami amplitudes are largely insensitive to the choice of slip model for a given magnitude. These results are useful for identifying the most hazardous segments of the subduction zone and demonstrate that a worst-case rupture scenario does not uniquely yield the worst-case tsunami scenario at a given location.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	e2021GL094174
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	16
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094174
State	Published - Aug 28 2021

Funding

The manuscript significantly benefited from invaluable discussions with Jean‐Paul Ampuero, Amanda Thomas, and Kelin Wang as well as the constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers. Some figures were drafted using the Generic Mapping Tools (Wessel & Smith, 1998 ). This study was supported by a National Science Foundation grant (PREEVENTS geosciences directorate No. 1663769).

Keywords

Cascadia
coastal hazard
coastal morphology
earthquake rupture
simulation
tsunami

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Access to Document

10.1029/2021GL094174

Cite this

@article{76ffc4fd5c934c39a132772a186459e6,

title = "Relative Tsunami Hazard From Segments of Cascadia Subduction Zone For Mw 7.5–9.2 Earthquakes",

abstract = "Tsunamis from earthquakes of various magnitudes have affected Cascadia in the past. Simulations of Mw 7.5–9.2 earthquake constrained by earthquake rupture physics and geodetic locking models show that Mw ≥ 8.5 events initiating in the middle segments of the subduction zone can create coastal tsunami amplitudes comparable to those from the largest expected event. Our rupture and tsunami simulations reveal that the concave coastline geometry of the Pacific Northwest coastline focuses tsunami energy between latitudes 44° and 45° in Oregon. The possible coastal tsunami amplitudes are largely insensitive to the choice of slip model for a given magnitude. These results are useful for identifying the most hazardous segments of the subduction zone and demonstrate that a worst-case rupture scenario does not uniquely yield the worst-case tsunami scenario at a given location.",

keywords = "Cascadia, coastal hazard, coastal morphology, earthquake rupture, simulation, tsunami",

author = "Amir Salaree and Yihe Huang and Ramos, {Marlon D.} and Seth Stein",

year = "2021",

month = aug,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1029/2021GL094174",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "48",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "American Geophysical Union",

number = "16",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Relative Tsunami Hazard From Segments of Cascadia Subduction Zone For Mw 7.5–9.2 Earthquakes

AU - Salaree, Amir

AU - Huang, Yihe

AU - Ramos, Marlon D.

AU - Stein, Seth

PY - 2021/8/28

Y1 - 2021/8/28

N2 - Tsunamis from earthquakes of various magnitudes have affected Cascadia in the past. Simulations of Mw 7.5–9.2 earthquake constrained by earthquake rupture physics and geodetic locking models show that Mw ≥ 8.5 events initiating in the middle segments of the subduction zone can create coastal tsunami amplitudes comparable to those from the largest expected event. Our rupture and tsunami simulations reveal that the concave coastline geometry of the Pacific Northwest coastline focuses tsunami energy between latitudes 44° and 45° in Oregon. The possible coastal tsunami amplitudes are largely insensitive to the choice of slip model for a given magnitude. These results are useful for identifying the most hazardous segments of the subduction zone and demonstrate that a worst-case rupture scenario does not uniquely yield the worst-case tsunami scenario at a given location.

AB - Tsunamis from earthquakes of various magnitudes have affected Cascadia in the past. Simulations of Mw 7.5–9.2 earthquake constrained by earthquake rupture physics and geodetic locking models show that Mw ≥ 8.5 events initiating in the middle segments of the subduction zone can create coastal tsunami amplitudes comparable to those from the largest expected event. Our rupture and tsunami simulations reveal that the concave coastline geometry of the Pacific Northwest coastline focuses tsunami energy between latitudes 44° and 45° in Oregon. The possible coastal tsunami amplitudes are largely insensitive to the choice of slip model for a given magnitude. These results are useful for identifying the most hazardous segments of the subduction zone and demonstrate that a worst-case rupture scenario does not uniquely yield the worst-case tsunami scenario at a given location.

KW - Cascadia

KW - coastal hazard

KW - coastal morphology

KW - earthquake rupture

KW - simulation

KW - tsunami

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85113439137&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85113439137&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2021GL094174

DO - 10.1029/2021GL094174

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85113439137

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 48

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 16

M1 - e2021GL094174

ER -