Replacing time since human immunodeficiency virus infection by marker values in predicting residual time to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome diagnosis

It is widely assumed that the time since human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is an important indicator of HIV disease stage, yet for most infected individuals the date of infection is unknown. We consider whether marker values, such as CD4 lymphocyte number or percent and levels of serum β₂ microglobulin or serum neopterin, render time since infection unimportant for predicting the residual time to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) diagnosis. The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) contains a subsample of homosexual men whose date of HIV seroconversion is known within ±6 months and who provide data for this analysis. From this subsample, we extract two overlapping data subsets. The first subset consists of 370 persons whose 3,723 study visits include complete data on the cellular markers CD4 lymphocyte number and percent for a period of 9 years. The second consists of 272 persons whose 1,593 visits include complete information on cellular markers and on the serological markers β₂-microglobulin and neopterin for a period of 5 1/4 years. We model the residual time to AIDS diagnosis with a regression model, in which cellular and serologic markers are the explanatory covariates (independent variables) and the residual time to AIDS is the responses variable (dependent variable). A robust estimate of the variance-covariance matrix corrects for the dependence of repeated measurements in the same individual. In the case of CD4 number and percent, the results indicate that time since infection is of none or at most little importance if the marker value is known, suggesting that time since infection can be adequately replaced by the combination of marker values. However, the serological markers alone do not eliminate the importance of the time since infection.