Resource allocation for reduction of epistemic uncertainty in simulation-based multidisciplinary design

Zhen Jiang, Shishi Chen, Daniel W. Apley, Wei Chen*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Epistemic model uncertainty is a significant source of uncertainty that affects a multidisciplinary system. In order to achieve a reliable design, it is critical to ensure that the disciplinary/subsystem simulation models are trustworthy, so that the aggregated uncertainty of system quantities of interest (QOIs) is acceptable. Uncertainty reduction can be achieved by gathering additional experiments and simulations data; however resource allocation for multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) remains a challenging task due to the complex structure of a multidisciplinary system. In this paper, we develop a novel approach by integrating multidisciplinary uncertainty analysis (MUA) and multidisciplinary statistical sensitivity analysis (MSSA) to answer the questions about where (sampling locations), what (disciplinary responses), and which (simulations versus experiments) for allocating more resources. To manage the complexity in making the above decisions, a sequential procedure is proposed. First, the input space of a multidiscipline system is explored to identify the locations with unacceptable amounts of uncertainty with respect to the system QOIs. Next, these input locations are selected through a correlation check so that they are sparsely located in the input space, and their corresponding critical responses are identified based on MSSA. Finally, using a preposterior analysis, decisions are made about what type of resources (experimental or computational) should be allocated to the critical responses at the chosen input locations. The proposed method is applied to a benchmark electronic packaging problem to demonstrate how epistemic uncertainty is gradually reduced via gathering more data.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication41st Design Automation Conference
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
ISBN (Electronic)9780791857083
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015
EventASME 2015 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2015 - Boston, United States
Duration: Aug 2 2015Aug 5 2015

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
Volume2B-2015

Other

OtherASME 2015 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2015
CountryUnited States
CityBoston
Period8/2/158/5/15

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design

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