TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk of discharge to postacute care
T2 - A patient-centered outcome for the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator
AU - Mohanty, Sanjay
AU - Liu, Yaoming
AU - Paruch, Jennifer L.
AU - Kmiecik, Thomas E.
AU - Cohen, Mark E.
AU - Ko, Clifford Y.
AU - Bilimoria, Karl Y.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
PY - 2015/5/1
Y1 - 2015/5/1
N2 - IMPORTANCE: Individualized risk prediction tools have an important role as decision aids for use by patients and surgeons before surgery. Patient-centered outcomes should be incorporated into such tools to widen their appeal and improve their usability. OBJECTIVE: To develop a patient-centered outcome for the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator, a web-based, individualized risk prediction tool. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study using data from the ACS NSQIP, a national clinical data registry. A total of 973 211 patients from July 2010 to June 2012, encompassing 392 hospitals, were used in this analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Risk of discharge to a postacute care setting. RESULTS: The overall rate of discharge to postacute care was 8.8%. Significant predictors of discharge to postacute care included being 85 years or older (odds ratio [OR] = 9.17; 95% CI, 8.84-9.50), the presence of septic shock (OR = 2.43; 95% CI, 2.20-2.69) or ventilator dependence (OR = 2.81; 95% CI, 2.56-3.09) preoperatively, American Society of Anesthesiologists class of 4 or 5 (OR = 3.59; 95% CI, 3.46-3.71), and totally dependent functional status (OR = 2.27; 95% CI, 2.11-2.44). The final model predicted risk of discharge to postacute care with excellent accuracy (C statistic = 0.924) and calibration (Brier score = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Individualized risk of discharge to postacute care can be predicted with excellent accuracy. This outcome will be incorporated into the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator.
AB - IMPORTANCE: Individualized risk prediction tools have an important role as decision aids for use by patients and surgeons before surgery. Patient-centered outcomes should be incorporated into such tools to widen their appeal and improve their usability. OBJECTIVE: To develop a patient-centered outcome for the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator, a web-based, individualized risk prediction tool. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study using data from the ACS NSQIP, a national clinical data registry. A total of 973 211 patients from July 2010 to June 2012, encompassing 392 hospitals, were used in this analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Risk of discharge to a postacute care setting. RESULTS: The overall rate of discharge to postacute care was 8.8%. Significant predictors of discharge to postacute care included being 85 years or older (odds ratio [OR] = 9.17; 95% CI, 8.84-9.50), the presence of septic shock (OR = 2.43; 95% CI, 2.20-2.69) or ventilator dependence (OR = 2.81; 95% CI, 2.56-3.09) preoperatively, American Society of Anesthesiologists class of 4 or 5 (OR = 3.59; 95% CI, 3.46-3.71), and totally dependent functional status (OR = 2.27; 95% CI, 2.11-2.44). The final model predicted risk of discharge to postacute care with excellent accuracy (C statistic = 0.924) and calibration (Brier score = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Individualized risk of discharge to postacute care can be predicted with excellent accuracy. This outcome will be incorporated into the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84929688148&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84929688148&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1001/jamasurg.2014.3176
DO - 10.1001/jamasurg.2014.3176
M3 - Article
C2 - 25806660
AN - SCOPUS:84929688148
SN - 2168-6254
VL - 150
SP - 480
EP - 484
JO - JAMA surgery
JF - JAMA surgery
IS - 5
ER -