Second trimester sunlight and asthma: Evidence from two independent studies

Nils Wernerfelt, David J.G. Slusky, Richard Zeckhauser*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations


One in 12 Americans suffers from asthma, and its annual costs are estimated to exceed $50 billion. Yet the root causes of the disease remain unknown. A recent hypothesis posits that maternal vitamin D levels during pregnancy affect the probability the fetus later develops asthma. Employing two large-scale studies, we test this hypothesis using a natural experiment afforded by historical variation in sunlight, a major source of vitamin D. Specifically, holding the birth location and month fixed, we see how exogenous within-location variation in sunlight across birth years affects the probability of asthma onset. We show that this measurement of sunlight correlates with actual exposure, and consistent with preexisting results from the fetal development literature, we find substantial and highly significant evidence in both data sets that increased sunlight during the second trimester lowers the subsequent probability of asthma. Our results suggest policies designed to augment vitamin D levels in pregnant women, the large majority of whomare vitamin D insufficient, could be very cost effective and yield a substantial surplus.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)227-253
Number of pages27
JournalAmerican Journal of Health Economics
Issue number2
StatePublished - May 1 2017


  • Asthma
  • Natural experiment
  • Sunlight
  • Vitamin D

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
  • Health Policy
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health


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