Selecting the best? Spillover and shadows in elimination tournaments

Jennifer Brown, Dylan B. Minor

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

24 Scopus citations

Abstract

We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect wherein the stronger the expected future competitor, the lower the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage; and (2) an effort spillover effect wherein previous effort reduces the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage. We test our theory predictions using data from high-stakes tournaments. Empirical results suggest that shadow and spillover effects influence match outcomes and have already been priced into betting markets.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3087-3102
Number of pages16
JournalManagement Science
Volume60
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2014

Keywords

  • Betting markets
  • Contest design
  • Dynamic contest
  • Effort choice
  • Elimination tournament

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research

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