@article{4f9211bc7ac74b479b54020d465877a1,
title = "Small vulnerable sets determine large network cascades in power grids",
abstract = "The understanding of cascading failures in complex systems has been hindered by the lack of realistic large-scale modeling and analysis that can account for variable system conditions. Using the North American power grid, we identified, quantified, and analyzed the set of network components that are vulnerable to cascading failures under any out of multiple conditions. We show that the vulnerable set consists of a small but topologically central portion of the network and that large cascades are disproportionately more likely to be triggered by initial failures close to this set. These results elucidate aspects of the origins and causes of cascading failures relevant for grid design and operation and demonstrate vulnerability analysis methods that are applicable to a wider class of cascade-prone networks.",
author = "Yang Yang and Takashi Nishikawa and Motter, {Adilson E.}",
note = "Funding Information: The authors thank H. Valizadehhaghi for insightful discussions. This work was supported by the Institute for Sustainability and Energy at Northwestern (ISEN) under a Booster Award, the U.S. National Science Foundation under grant DMS-1057128, and the Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (U.S. Department of Energy), under award DE-AR0000702. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. The power-grid data were obtained from FERC under a nondisclosure agreement by following the procedure described at www.ferc.gov/legal/ceii-foia/ceii.asp. The BPA line outage data and the NERC grid disturbance data are both publicly available at https://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/ Operations/Outages (Miscellaneous Outage Data and Analysis) and www.oe.netl.doe.gov/OE417_annual_summary.aspx (Electric Disturbance Events, OE-417), respectively. The 2010 U.S. census data and the boundary data for the U.S. counties can be downloaded from https://factfinder.census.gov and www.census. gov/geo/maps-data/data/cbf/cbf_counties.html, respectively. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.",
year = "2017",
month = nov,
day = "17",
doi = "10.1126/science.aan3184",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "358",
journal = "Science",
issn = "0036-8075",
publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",
number = "6365",
}