Zdenek P Bazant*, F. H. Wittmann, J. K. Kim, F. Alou

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

33 Scopus citations


A large series of data on carefully controlled shrinkage tests of concrete involving groups of large numbers of identical specimens is reported. The data are used to compare existing shrinkage formulas in ACI, CEB-FIP, and BP modes. By far the best agreement is obtained for the BP model. Assuming that only the measured data for a certain initial period are known, predictions are made for long time and are compared. Best predictions are obtained when the shrinkage formula is fitted to test data using nonlinear optimization, then linear regression in transformed variables is used to obtain the confidence limits for long-time predictions. It is concluded that good long-time predictions of shrinkage can be obtained on the basis of shrinkage test results on 80 mm diameter cylinders for a 3-week duration.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)20-34
Number of pages15
JournalACI Materials Journal
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 1 1987

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Building and Construction
  • Materials Science(all)

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    Bazant, Z. P., Wittmann, F. H., Kim, J. K., & Alou, F. (1987). STATISTICAL EXTRAPOLATION OF SHRINKAGE DATA - PART I: REGRESSION. ACI Materials Journal, 84(1), 20-34.