Statistical validation of a global model for the distribution of the ultimate number of citations accrued by papers published in a scientific journal

Michael J. Stringer, Marta Sales-Pardo, Luís A. Nunes Amaral

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

63 Scopus citations

Abstract

A central issue in evaluative bibliometrics is the characterization of the citation distribution of papers in the scientific literature. Here, we perform a large-scale empirical analysis of journals from every field in Thomson Reuters' Web of Science database. We find that only 30 of the 2, 184 journals have citation distributions that are inconsistent with a discrete lognormal distribution at the rejection threshold that controls the false discovery rate at 0.05. We find that large, multidisciplinary journals are over-represented in this set of 30 journals, leading us to conclude that, within a discipline, citation distributions are lognormal. Our results strongly suggest that the discrete lognormal distribution is a globally accurate model for the distribution of "eventual impact" of scientific papers published in single-discipline journal in a single year that is removed sufficiently from the present date.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1377-1385
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
Volume61
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2010

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Information Systems
  • Human-Computer Interaction
  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Artificial Intelligence

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