Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability

Jing Dong; Hani S Mahmassani

doi:10.1109/ITSC.2011.6083028

Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability

Jing Dong^*, Hani S Mahmassani

^*Corresponding author for this work

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling approach to generate random flow breakdowns on congested freeways and capture the subsequent wave propagation among heterogeneous drivers. The approach is intended for predicting travel time variability caused by such stochastic phenomena. It is assumed that breakdown may occur at different flow levels with some probability, and would sustain for a random duration. This is modeled at the microscopic level by considering speed changes that are initiated by a leading vehicle and propagated by the following vehicles with correlated-distributed behavioral parameters. Numerical results from a Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the proposed stochastic modeling approach produces realistic macroscopic traffic flow behavior and can be used to generate travel time distributions.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011
Pages	2112-2117
Number of pages	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2011.6083028
State	Published - Dec 22 2011
Event	14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011 - Washington, DC, United States Duration: Oct 5 2011 → Oct 7 2011

Publication series

Name	IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC

Other

Other	14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011
Country/Territory	United States
City	Washington, DC
Period	10/5/11 → 10/7/11

Keywords

Monte Carlo simulation
car-following model
duration model
flow breakdown probability
heterogeneous drivers
travel time reliability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Automotive Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Computer Science Applications

Access to Document

10.1109/ITSC.2011.6083028

Cite this

Dong, J., & Mahmassani, H. S. (2011). Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability. In 2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011 (pp. 2112-2117). Article 6083028 (IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC). https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2011.6083028

@inproceedings{72c465e0eef0482e98bb3e4f24f5df27,

title = "Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability",

abstract = "This paper presents a modeling approach to generate random flow breakdowns on congested freeways and capture the subsequent wave propagation among heterogeneous drivers. The approach is intended for predicting travel time variability caused by such stochastic phenomena. It is assumed that breakdown may occur at different flow levels with some probability, and would sustain for a random duration. This is modeled at the microscopic level by considering speed changes that are initiated by a leading vehicle and propagated by the following vehicles with correlated-distributed behavioral parameters. Numerical results from a Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the proposed stochastic modeling approach produces realistic macroscopic traffic flow behavior and can be used to generate travel time distributions.",

keywords = "Monte Carlo simulation, car-following model, duration model, flow breakdown probability, heterogeneous drivers, travel time reliability",

author = "Jing Dong and Mahmassani, {Hani S}",

year = "2011",

month = dec,

day = "22",

doi = "10.1109/ITSC.2011.6083028",

language = "English (US)",

isbn = "9781457721984",

series = "IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC",

pages = "2112--2117",

booktitle = "2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011",

note = "14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011 ; Conference date: 05-10-2011 Through 07-10-2011",

}

Dong, J & Mahmassani, HS 2011, Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability. in 2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011., 6083028, IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC, pp. 2112-2117, 14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011, Washington, DC, United States, 10/5/11. https://doi.org/10.1109/ITSC.2011.6083028

Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability. / Dong, Jing; Mahmassani, Hani S.
2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011. 2011. p. 2112-2117 6083028 (IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

TY - GEN

T1 - Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon

T2 - 14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011

AU - Dong, Jing

AU - Mahmassani, Hani S

PY - 2011/12/22

Y1 - 2011/12/22

N2 - This paper presents a modeling approach to generate random flow breakdowns on congested freeways and capture the subsequent wave propagation among heterogeneous drivers. The approach is intended for predicting travel time variability caused by such stochastic phenomena. It is assumed that breakdown may occur at different flow levels with some probability, and would sustain for a random duration. This is modeled at the microscopic level by considering speed changes that are initiated by a leading vehicle and propagated by the following vehicles with correlated-distributed behavioral parameters. Numerical results from a Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the proposed stochastic modeling approach produces realistic macroscopic traffic flow behavior and can be used to generate travel time distributions.

AB - This paper presents a modeling approach to generate random flow breakdowns on congested freeways and capture the subsequent wave propagation among heterogeneous drivers. The approach is intended for predicting travel time variability caused by such stochastic phenomena. It is assumed that breakdown may occur at different flow levels with some probability, and would sustain for a random duration. This is modeled at the microscopic level by considering speed changes that are initiated by a leading vehicle and propagated by the following vehicles with correlated-distributed behavioral parameters. Numerical results from a Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the proposed stochastic modeling approach produces realistic macroscopic traffic flow behavior and can be used to generate travel time distributions.

KW - Monte Carlo simulation

KW - car-following model

KW - duration model

KW - flow breakdown probability

KW - heterogeneous drivers

KW - travel time reliability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=83755196337&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=83755196337&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1109/ITSC.2011.6083028

DO - 10.1109/ITSC.2011.6083028

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:83755196337

SN - 9781457721984

T3 - IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC

SP - 2112

EP - 2117

BT - 2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011

Y2 - 5 October 2011 through 7 October 2011

ER -

Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability

Abstract

Publication series

Other

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this