Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability

Jing Dong*, Hani S Mahmassani

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling approach to generate random flow breakdowns on congested freeways and capture the subsequent wave propagation among heterogeneous drivers. The approach is intended for predicting travel time variability caused by such stochastic phenomena. It is assumed that breakdown may occur at different flow levels with some probability, and would sustain for a random duration. This is modeled at the microscopic level by considering speed changes that are initiated by a leading vehicle and propagated by the following vehicles with correlated-distributed behavioral parameters. Numerical results from a Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the proposed stochastic modeling approach produces realistic macroscopic traffic flow behavior and can be used to generate travel time distributions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2011 14th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2011
Pages2112-2117
Number of pages6
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 22 2011
Event14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011 - Washington, DC, United States
Duration: Oct 5 2011Oct 7 2011

Publication series

NameIEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC

Other

Other14th IEEE International Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, ITSC 2011
CountryUnited States
CityWashington, DC
Period10/5/1110/7/11

Keywords

  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • car-following model
  • duration model
  • flow breakdown probability
  • heterogeneous drivers
  • travel time reliability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Stochastic modeling of traffic flow breakdown phenomenon: Application to predicting travel time reliability'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this