Stochastic Trees:A New Technique for Temporal Medical Decision Modeling

Gordon B. Hazen*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

32 Scopus citations


This paper introduces stochastic trees, a new modeling approach for the class of medical decision problems in which risks of mortality and morbidity may extend over time. A stochastic tree may be regarded as a continuous-time version of a Markov-cycle tree, or alternately, as a multi-state DEALE model. Optimal decisions in stochastic trees can be determined by rollback, much in the same fashion as decision trees. The author discusses how age- dependent mortality rates and declining incidence rates may be modeled using stochastic trees. Concepts are illustrated using examples from the medical literature. It is argued that stochastic trees possess important advantages over Markov-cycle trees for medical decision modeling. Key words: stochastic trees; DEALE models; decision analysis; Markov cycle trees. (Med Decis Making 1992;12:163-178)

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)163-178
Number of pages16
JournalMedical Decision Making
Issue number3
StatePublished - Aug 1992

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health Policy


Dive into the research topics of 'Stochastic Trees:A New Technique for Temporal Medical Decision Modeling'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this