The failure strain level in a single point incremental forming (SPIF) process is found to be much higher than that in the traditional stamping process. Based on the assumption that forming limits in SPIF are dominated by fracture failure, the Oyane ductile fracture criterion is introduced in this paper to predict the fracture initiation site, and hence the forming limit, given the stress and strain values obtained from finite element simulations. The predicted results compare well with those obtained from the SPIF experiments. Furthermore, this fracture criterion is used to study the size effects in SPIF. Analytical equations are derived to comprehensively consider the effects of design and process parameters on sheet formability including sheet thickness, tool diameter, and incremental depth. Previously published experimental data is used to verify the feasibility of the proposed size effect equation.