TY - JOUR
T1 - Suspense and surprise
AU - Ely, Jeffrey
AU - Frankel, Alexander
AU - Kamenica, Emir
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience.We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.
AB - We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience.We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.
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U2 - 10.1086/677350
DO - 10.1086/677350
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84922496704
VL - 123
SP - 215
EP - 260
JO - Journal of Political Economy
JF - Journal of Political Economy
SN - 0022-3808
IS - 1
ER -