TESTING DISAGGREGATE TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS BY COMPARING PREDICTED AND OBSERVED MARKET SHARES.

Joel L. Horowitz*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

An intuitively appealing and popular method for testing a disaggregate choice model of travel demand, such as a logit model, consists of comparing the model's predictions of the market shares of travel alternatives in population groups with observations of these shares. A statistical test is described that enables one to distinguish between the effects of random sampling errors and those of true model errors when predicted and observed market shares are compared. Five easily programmable steps for implementing the test are given, and commercially available software that can help with the computations is identified. A numerical example of the application of the test is presented, and the role of the test in practical model development is discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-7
Number of pages7
JournalTransportation Research Record
StatePublished - Jan 1 1984

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering

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