The 1952 Kern County, California earthquake: A case study of issues in the analysis of historical intensity data for estimation of source parameters

Leah Salditch*, Susan E. Hough, Seth A Stein, Bruce David Spencer, Edward M. Brooks, James S. Neely, Madeleine C. Lucas

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Seismic intensity data based on first-hand accounts of shaking give valuable insight into historical and early instrumental earthquakes. Comparing an observed intensity distribution to intensity-prediction models based on modern calibration events allows the magnitude to be estimated for many historic earthquakes. Magnitude estimates can also potentially be refined for earthquakes for which limited instrumental data are available. However, the complicated nature of macroseismic data and the methods used to collect and interpret the data introduce significant uncertainties. In this paper, we illustrate these challenges and possible solutions using the 1952 Kern County, California, earthquake as a case study. Published estimates of its magnitude vary from MW 7.2–7.5, making it possibly the second largest in California during the 20th century. We considered over 1100 first-hand reports of shaking, supplemented with other data, and inferred the magnitude in several ways using intensity prediction equations, yielding a preferred intensity magnitude MI 7.2 ± 0.2, where the uncertainty reflects our judgement. The revised intensity distribution reveals stronger shaking on the hanging wall, south of the surface expression of the White Wolf fault, than on the footwall. Characterizing the magnitude and shaking distribution of this early instrumental earthquake can help improve estimation of the seismic hazard of the region. Such reinterpreted intensities for historic earthquakes, combined with USGS Did You Feel It? data for more recent events, can be used to produce a uniform shaking dataset with which earthquake hazard map performance can be assessed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)140-151
Number of pages12
JournalPhysics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors
Volume283
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2018

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source parameters
shaking
earthquakes
earthquake
seismic hazard
hazards
hanging wall
footwall
prediction
wolves
estimates
predictions
analysis
calibration
distribution

Keywords

  • Earthquakes
  • Historic earthquakes
  • Seismic hazard
  • Seismic intensity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Geophysics
  • Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous)
  • Space and Planetary Science

Cite this

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title = "The 1952 Kern County, California earthquake: A case study of issues in the analysis of historical intensity data for estimation of source parameters",
abstract = "Seismic intensity data based on first-hand accounts of shaking give valuable insight into historical and early instrumental earthquakes. Comparing an observed intensity distribution to intensity-prediction models based on modern calibration events allows the magnitude to be estimated for many historic earthquakes. Magnitude estimates can also potentially be refined for earthquakes for which limited instrumental data are available. However, the complicated nature of macroseismic data and the methods used to collect and interpret the data introduce significant uncertainties. In this paper, we illustrate these challenges and possible solutions using the 1952 Kern County, California, earthquake as a case study. Published estimates of its magnitude vary from MW 7.2–7.5, making it possibly the second largest in California during the 20th century. We considered over 1100 first-hand reports of shaking, supplemented with other data, and inferred the magnitude in several ways using intensity prediction equations, yielding a preferred intensity magnitude MI 7.2 ± 0.2, where the uncertainty reflects our judgement. The revised intensity distribution reveals stronger shaking on the hanging wall, south of the surface expression of the White Wolf fault, than on the footwall. Characterizing the magnitude and shaking distribution of this early instrumental earthquake can help improve estimation of the seismic hazard of the region. Such reinterpreted intensities for historic earthquakes, combined with USGS Did You Feel It? data for more recent events, can be used to produce a uniform shaking dataset with which earthquake hazard map performance can be assessed.",
keywords = "Earthquakes, Historic earthquakes, Seismic hazard, Seismic intensity",
author = "Leah Salditch and Hough, {Susan E.} and Stein, {Seth A} and Spencer, {Bruce David} and Brooks, {Edward M.} and Neely, {James S.} and Lucas, {Madeleine C.}",
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The 1952 Kern County, California earthquake : A case study of issues in the analysis of historical intensity data for estimation of source parameters. / Salditch, Leah; Hough, Susan E.; Stein, Seth A; Spencer, Bruce David; Brooks, Edward M.; Neely, James S.; Lucas, Madeleine C.

In: Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Vol. 283, 01.10.2018, p. 140-151.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The 1952 Kern County, California earthquake

T2 - A case study of issues in the analysis of historical intensity data for estimation of source parameters

AU - Salditch, Leah

AU - Hough, Susan E.

AU - Stein, Seth A

AU - Spencer, Bruce David

AU - Brooks, Edward M.

AU - Neely, James S.

AU - Lucas, Madeleine C.

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