The Misquantification of Probative Value

D. H. Kaye, Jonathan J. Koehler*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

20 Scopus citations


D. Davis and W. C. Follette (2002) purport to show that when "the base rate" for a crime is low, the probative value of " characteristics known to be strongly associated with the crime ... will be virtually nil." Their analysis rests on the choice of an arbitrary and inapposite measure of the probative value of evidence. When a more suitable metric is used (e.g., a likelihood ratio), it becomes clear that evidence they would dismiss as devoid of probative value is relevant and diagnostic.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)645-659
Number of pages15
JournalLaw and Human Behavior
Issue number6
StatePublished - Dec 2003


  • Evidence
  • Inference
  • Probative value

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
  • Psychology(all)
  • Psychiatry and Mental health
  • Law


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