The Misquantification of Probative Value

D. H. Kaye, Jonathan J. Koehler*

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

    19 Scopus citations


    D. Davis and W. C. Follette (2002) purport to show that when "the base rate" for a crime is low, the probative value of " characteristics known to be strongly associated with the crime ... will be virtually nil." Their analysis rests on the choice of an arbitrary and inapposite measure of the probative value of evidence. When a more suitable metric is used (e.g., a likelihood ratio), it becomes clear that evidence they would dismiss as devoid of probative value is relevant and diagnostic.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)645-659
    Number of pages15
    JournalLaw and Human Behavior
    Issue number6
    StatePublished - Dec 2003


    • Evidence
    • Inference
    • Probative value

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
    • Psychology(all)
    • Psychiatry and Mental health
    • Law


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