The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015

Murray M. Pollack, Richard Holubkov, Tomohiko Funai, J. Michael Dean, John T. Berger, David L. Wessel, Kathleen Meert, Robert A. Berg, Christopher J L Newth, Rick E. Harrison, Joseph Carcillo, Heidi Dalton, Thomas Shanley, Tammara L. Jenkins, Robert Tamburro, Carol Nicholson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

57 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for "optimizing" care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design: Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results: Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3-5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics indicated adequate model fit for both the development (p = 0.39) and validation (p = 0.50) sets. Conclusions: The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection methods include significant improvements that minimize the potential for bias and errors, and the new Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV algorithm for survival and death has excellent prediction performance.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2-9
Number of pages8
JournalPediatric Critical Care Medicine
Volume17
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2016

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Pediatrics
Mortality
Survival
Public Sector
Critical Care
Heart Arrest
ROC Curve
Catheterization
Nervous System
Thoracic Surgery
Cohort Studies
Research Design
Prospective Studies
Morbidity

Keywords

  • critical care
  • intensive care
  • outcome prediction
  • pediatric critical care
  • pediatric intensive care
  • pediatric risk of mortality
  • pediatrics
  • physiologic status
  • quality
  • quality assessment
  • severity of illness

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pediatrics, Perinatology, and Child Health
  • Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine

Cite this

Pollack, M. M., Holubkov, R., Funai, T., Dean, J. M., Berger, J. T., Wessel, D. L., ... Nicholson, C. (2016). The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015. Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, 17(1), 2-9. https://doi.org/10.1097/PCC.0000000000000558
Pollack, Murray M. ; Holubkov, Richard ; Funai, Tomohiko ; Dean, J. Michael ; Berger, John T. ; Wessel, David L. ; Meert, Kathleen ; Berg, Robert A. ; Newth, Christopher J L ; Harrison, Rick E. ; Carcillo, Joseph ; Dalton, Heidi ; Shanley, Thomas ; Jenkins, Tammara L. ; Tamburro, Robert ; Nicholson, Carol. / The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score : Update 2015. In: Pediatric Critical Care Medicine. 2016 ; Vol. 17, No. 1. pp. 2-9.
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Pollack, MM, Holubkov, R, Funai, T, Dean, JM, Berger, JT, Wessel, DL, Meert, K, Berg, RA, Newth, CJL, Harrison, RE, Carcillo, J, Dalton, H, Shanley, T, Jenkins, TL, Tamburro, R & Nicholson, C 2016, 'The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015', Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 2-9. https://doi.org/10.1097/PCC.0000000000000558

The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score : Update 2015. / Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J L; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert; Nicholson, Carol.

In: Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, Vol. 17, No. 1, 01.01.2016, p. 2-9.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score

T2 - Update 2015

AU - Pollack, Murray M.

AU - Holubkov, Richard

AU - Funai, Tomohiko

AU - Dean, J. Michael

AU - Berger, John T.

AU - Wessel, David L.

AU - Meert, Kathleen

AU - Berg, Robert A.

AU - Newth, Christopher J L

AU - Harrison, Rick E.

AU - Carcillo, Joseph

AU - Dalton, Heidi

AU - Shanley, Thomas

AU - Jenkins, Tammara L.

AU - Tamburro, Robert

AU - Nicholson, Carol

PY - 2016/1/1

Y1 - 2016/1/1

N2 - Objectives: Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for "optimizing" care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design: Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results: Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3-5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics indicated adequate model fit for both the development (p = 0.39) and validation (p = 0.50) sets. Conclusions: The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection methods include significant improvements that minimize the potential for bias and errors, and the new Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV algorithm for survival and death has excellent prediction performance.

AB - Objectives: Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for "optimizing" care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design: Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results: Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3-5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics indicated adequate model fit for both the development (p = 0.39) and validation (p = 0.50) sets. Conclusions: The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection methods include significant improvements that minimize the potential for bias and errors, and the new Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV algorithm for survival and death has excellent prediction performance.

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KW - intensive care

KW - outcome prediction

KW - pediatric critical care

KW - pediatric intensive care

KW - pediatric risk of mortality

KW - pediatrics

KW - physiologic status

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KW - quality assessment

KW - severity of illness

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Pollack MM, Holubkov R, Funai T, Dean JM, Berger JT, Wessel DL et al. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015. Pediatric Critical Care Medicine. 2016 Jan 1;17(1):2-9. https://doi.org/10.1097/PCC.0000000000000558