The turtle’s progress: Secular stagnation meets the headwinds

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US real GDP has grown at a turtle-like pace of only 2.1% per year in the last four years, despite a rapid decline in the unemployment rate from 10% to 6%. This column argues that US economic growth will continue to be slow for the next 25 to 40 years – not because of a slowdown in technological growth, but rather because of four ‘headwinds’: demographics, education, inequality, and government debt.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationSecular Stagnation
Subtitle of host publicationFacts, Causes and Cures
EditorsRichard Baldwin, Coen Teulings
PublisherCentre for Economic Policy Research
Number of pages14
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-907142-78-9
ISBN (Print)978-1-907142-77-2
StatePublished - 2014


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