Total error in PES estimates of population

Mary H. Mulry; Bruce D. Spencer

doi:10.1080/01621459.1991.10475122

Total error in PES estimates of population

Mary H. Mulry, Bruce D. Spencer

Statistics and Data Science

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

29 Scopus citations

Abstract

We describe a methodology for estimating the accuracy of dual systems estimates (DSE’s) of population, census estimates of population, and estimates of undercount in the census. The DSE’s are based on the census and a post-enumeration survey (PES). We apply the methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census of St. Louis and east-central Missouri and we discuss its applicability to the 1990 census and PES. The methodology is based on decompositions of the total (or net) error into components, such as sampling error, matching error, and other nonsampling errors. Limited information about the accuracy of certain components of error, notably failure of assumptions in the “capture–recapture” model, but others as well, lead us to offer tentative estimates of the errors of the census, DSE, and undercount estimates for 1988. Improved estimates are anticipated for 1990.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	839-855
Number of pages	17
Journal	Journal of the American Statistical Association
Volume	86
Issue number	416
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1991.10475122
State	Published - Dec 1991

Keywords

Capture-recapture
Coverage evaluation
Nonsampling error
Post-enumeration survey
Undercount

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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10.1080/01621459.1991.10475122

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title = "Total error in PES estimates of population",

abstract = "We describe a methodology for estimating the accuracy of dual systems estimates (DSE{\textquoteright}s) of population, census estimates of population, and estimates of undercount in the census. The DSE{\textquoteright}s are based on the census and a post-enumeration survey (PES). We apply the methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census of St. Louis and east-central Missouri and we discuss its applicability to the 1990 census and PES. The methodology is based on decompositions of the total (or net) error into components, such as sampling error, matching error, and other nonsampling errors. Limited information about the accuracy of certain components of error, notably failure of assumptions in the “capture–recapture” model, but others as well, lead us to offer tentative estimates of the errors of the census, DSE, and undercount estimates for 1988. Improved estimates are anticipated for 1990.",

keywords = "Capture-recapture, Coverage evaluation, Nonsampling error, Post-enumeration survey, Undercount",

author = "Mulry, {Mary H.} and Spencer, {Bruce D.}",

note = "Funding Information: * Mary H. Mulry is Supervisory Mathematical Statistician, Statistical Support Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233. Bruce D. Spencer is Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208 and Director of the Methodology Research Center at National Opinion Research Center (NORC). The views expressed are attributed to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Census Bureau. Bruce Spencer thanks the Census Bureau, Northwestern University, and NaRC for supporting this research under Joint Statistical Agreements JSA 88-12, 89-24, and 90-60. The authors wish to thank Aref Dajani for developing the computer software for the simulations, Chris Moriarity for the variance computation, and Juha Alho, Tom Belin, Chuck Cowan, Bob Fay, William Kruskal, Tom Severini, Lynne Stokes, and John Thompson for helpful discussions and illuminating disagreements. They are also grateful to Cliff Clogg and to anonymous reviewers, who provided some exceptionally penetrating comments.",

year = "1991",

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doi = "10.1080/01621459.1991.10475122",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "86",

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journal = "Journal of the American Statistical Association",

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PY - 1991/12

Y1 - 1991/12

N2 - We describe a methodology for estimating the accuracy of dual systems estimates (DSE’s) of population, census estimates of population, and estimates of undercount in the census. The DSE’s are based on the census and a post-enumeration survey (PES). We apply the methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census of St. Louis and east-central Missouri and we discuss its applicability to the 1990 census and PES. The methodology is based on decompositions of the total (or net) error into components, such as sampling error, matching error, and other nonsampling errors. Limited information about the accuracy of certain components of error, notably failure of assumptions in the “capture–recapture” model, but others as well, lead us to offer tentative estimates of the errors of the census, DSE, and undercount estimates for 1988. Improved estimates are anticipated for 1990.

AB - We describe a methodology for estimating the accuracy of dual systems estimates (DSE’s) of population, census estimates of population, and estimates of undercount in the census. The DSE’s are based on the census and a post-enumeration survey (PES). We apply the methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census of St. Louis and east-central Missouri and we discuss its applicability to the 1990 census and PES. The methodology is based on decompositions of the total (or net) error into components, such as sampling error, matching error, and other nonsampling errors. Limited information about the accuracy of certain components of error, notably failure of assumptions in the “capture–recapture” model, but others as well, lead us to offer tentative estimates of the errors of the census, DSE, and undercount estimates for 1988. Improved estimates are anticipated for 1990.

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Total error in PES estimates of population

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Keywords

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