Uncertainty due to parameter randomness via sampling of deterministic solutions

Zdenek P Bazant*, Milan Jirásek

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

Concrete creep and shrinkage are notorious for high random scatter of input parameters and high uncertainty of long-time predictions. Obviously, the structural design should not be based merely on mean predictions. In this chapter, we show how to estimate realistic confidence limits on the long-time creep and shrinkage predictions. Except for creep buckling of columns and shells, these limits are, fortunately, far less stringent than those required for failure prevention, but nevertheless important to make premature structural repair or demolition rare enough. Because sustainable design calls for structural lifetimes in excess of a century, we focus on long-term predictions of structural performance in the light of the randomness of material and environmental parameters. We emphasize the numerical sampling approach based on repeated runs of deterministic analysis of creep and shrinkage effects for judiciously selected random samples of input data. Finally, our discussion is focused on improving long-term predictions by means of the Bayesian updating in which the uncertainty due to the experimental data and prediction model is reduced by prior data on short-time creep of the given concrete and on the observed initial deformations of the given structure.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationSolid Mechanics and its Applications
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages177-204
Number of pages28
Volume225
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2018

Publication series

NameSolid Mechanics and its Applications
Volume225
ISSN (Print)0925-0042

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Materials Science(all)
  • Mechanics of Materials
  • Mechanical Engineering

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Uncertainty due to parameter randomness via sampling of deterministic solutions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Bazant, Z. P., & Jirásek, M. (2018). Uncertainty due to parameter randomness via sampling of deterministic solutions. In Solid Mechanics and its Applications (Vol. 225, pp. 177-204). (Solid Mechanics and its Applications; Vol. 225). Springer Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-024-1138-6_6