Uncertainty in limb configuration makes minimal contribution to errors between observed and predicted forces in a musculoskeletal model of the rat hindlimb

Subject-specific musculoskeletal models are increasingly used in biomedical applications to predict endpoint forces due to muscle activation, matching predicted forces to experimentally observed forces at a specific limb configuration. However, it is difficult to precisely measure the limb configuration at which these forces are observed. The consequent uncertainty in limb configuration might contribute to errors in model predictions. We therefore evaluated how uncertainties in limb configuration measurement contributed to errors in force prediction, using data from in vivo measurements in the rat hindlimb. We used a data-driven approach to estimate the uncertainty in estimated limb configuration and then used this configuration uncertainty to evaluate the consequent uncertainty in force predictions, using Monte Carlo simulations. We used subject-specific models of joint structures (i.e., centers and axes of rotation) in order to estimate limb configurations for each animal. The standard deviation of the distribution of predicted force directions resulting from configuration uncertainty was small, ranging between 0.27° and 3.05° across muscles. For most muscles, this standard deviation was considerably smaller than the error between observed and predicted forces (between 0.57° and 70.96°), suggesting that uncertainty in limb configuration could not explain inaccuracies in model predictions. Instead, our results suggest that inaccuracies in muscle model parameters, most likely in parameters specifying muscle moment arms, are the main source of prediction errors by musculoskeletal models in the rat hindlimb.