Unlucky cohorts: Estimating the long-term effects of entering the labor market in a recession in large cross-sectional data sets

Hannes Schwandt; Till von Wachter

doi:10.1086/701046

Unlucky cohorts: Estimating the long-term effects of entering the labor market in a recession in large cross-sectional data sets

Hannes Schwandt, Till von Wachter

School of Education and Social Policy

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

104 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions, especially for less advantaged entrants, that increases in government support only partly offset. We confirm that the results are unaffected by selective migration and labor market entry by also using a double-weighted average unemployment rate at labor market entry for each birth cohort and state-of-birth cell based on average state migration rates and average cohort education rates from census data.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	S161-S198
Journal	Journal of Labor Economics
Volume	37
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1086/701046
State	Published - Jan 1 2019

Funding

We thank Ioannis Kospentaris and Nicolas Oderbolz for excellent research assistance and David Card, Janet Currie, Lisa Kahn, Adriana Lleras-Muney, and participants at the National Bureau of Economic Research youth conference and several seminars for helpful comments.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Industrial relations
Economics and Econometrics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1086/701046

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abstract = "This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions, especially for less advantaged entrants, that increases in government support only partly offset. We confirm that the results are unaffected by selective migration and labor market entry by also using a double-weighted average unemployment rate at labor market entry for each birth cohort and state-of-birth cell based on average state migration rates and average cohort education rates from census data.",

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AB - This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions, especially for less advantaged entrants, that increases in government support only partly offset. We confirm that the results are unaffected by selective migration and labor market entry by also using a double-weighted average unemployment rate at labor market entry for each birth cohort and state-of-birth cell based on average state migration rates and average cohort education rates from census data.

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Unlucky cohorts: Estimating the long-term effects of entering the labor market in a recession in large cross-sectional data sets

Abstract

Funding

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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