Updating predictive models: Calibration, bias correction and identifiability

Paul D. Arendt, Wei Chen*, Daniel W. Apley

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Model updating, which utilizes mathematical means to combine model simulations with physical observations for improving model predictions, has been viewed as an integral part of a model validation process. While calibration is often used to "tune" uncertain model parameters, bias-correction has been used to capture model inadequacy due to a lack of knowledge of the physics of a problem. While both sources of uncertainty co-exist, these two techniques are often implemented separately in model updating. This paper examines existing approaches to model updating and presents a modular Bayesian approach as a comprehensive framework that accounts for many sources of uncertainty in a typical model updating process and provides stochastic predictions for the purpose of design. In addition to the uncertainty in the computer model parameters and the computer model itself, this framework accounts for the experimental uncertainty and the uncertainty due to the lack of data in both computer simulations and physical experiments using the Gaussian process model. Several challenges are apparent in the implementation of the modular Bayesian approach. We argue that distinguishing between uncertain model parameters (calibration) and systematic inadequacies (bias correction) is often quite challenging due to an identifiability issue. We present several explanations and examples of this issue and bring up the needs of future research in distinguishing between the two sources of uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE2010
Pages1089-1098
Number of pages10
EditionPARTS A AND B
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2010
EventASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE2010 - Montreal, QC, Canada
Duration: Aug 15 2010Aug 18 2010

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
NumberPARTS A AND B
Volume1

Other

OtherASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE2010
CountryCanada
CityMontreal, QC
Period8/15/108/18/10

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design

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