Urbanization enhances channel and surface runoff: A quantitative analysis using both physical and empirical models over the Yangtze River basin

Urbanization has become an irreversible trend and is even more rapid in flood-prone area. However, the responses of both channel runoff and surface runoff to the urbanization and the underlying mechanisms still deserve more in-depth exploration within urban extents with limited data availability. Accordingly, we conducted a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the urbanization effects on channel and surface runoff from both statistical and model-based perspectives over three major urban agglomerations (i.e., Chengyu (CY), middle region of Yangtze River (MRYR), Yangtze River Delta (YRD)) in the Yangtze River Basin. The long-term high-resolution channel and surface runoff under different urbanization scenarios were simulated using both WRF-Hydro and SCS-CN models by integrating multiple remotely sensed, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. Results demonstrated that the channel runoff increased by 4.4%, 5%, and 12.08% in CY, MRYR, and YRD urban agglomerations, respectively. Meanwhile, the urbanization also contributed to 30%, 21.4%, and 17.7% of the surface runoff changes in three urban agglomerations. Based on the high-resolution local climate zone (LCZ), our results highlighted that the high-rise and middle-rise buildings and compact-arranged regions were more prone to accumulating surface runoff and trigger flooding events due to the weaker infiltration capacity of land surface with the densely distribution of impervious surface. Further machine learning based investigation and case analysis also explored the potential influencing factors and mechanisms of the impact of urbanization on channel and surface runoff. Results in the current research show further evidence that policy makers of urban planning and management need to consider and ensure societal preparedness for extreme runoff and flooding events.