What’s up with the Phillips curve?

Marco Del Negro, Giorgio E. Primiceri, Michele Lenza, Andrea Tambalotti

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using vector autoregressions and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. It finds that the disconnect is due primarily to the muted reaction of inflation to cost pressures, regardless of how they are measured—a flat aggregate supply curve. A shift in policy toward more forceful inflation stabilization also appears to have played some role by reducing the impact of demand shocks on the real economy. The evidence rules out stories centered around changes in the structure of the labor market or in how we should measure its tightness.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)301-373
Number of pages73
JournalBrookings Papers on Economic Activity
Volume2020
Issue numberSpring
DOIs
StatePublished - 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)
  • Economics and Econometrics

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